Accuracy
How accurate is the Bored Ape Kennel Club model?
Every estimate is benchmarked against real sales the model never trained on (a seeded 80/20 hold-out).
Median accuracy
73.6%
Mean accuracy
65.4%
Within ±5%
10%
Within ±10%
20%
Within ±20%
39%
Bias
+14.4%
Weekly median accuracy
Hold-out accuracy by week
Error distribution
Signed % error on recent sales (0 = perfect)
Recent sales vs model
The 60 most recent sales, each valued as of its sale date
| Item | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #235 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.242Ξ | 0.281Ξ | -13.9% | 86.1% |
| #6712 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.600Ξ | 0.394Ξ | +52.4% | 47.6% |
| #3185 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.258Ξ | 0.290Ξ | -11.1% | 89.0% |
| #7053 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.250Ξ | 0.265Ξ | -5.7% | 94.3% |
| #2331 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.245Ξ | 0.322Ξ | -24.0% | 76.0% |
| #84 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.245Ξ | 0.275Ξ | -10.9% | 89.1% |
| #1800 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.356Ξ | 0.316Ξ | +12.6% | 87.4% |
| #1873 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.258Ξ | 0.283Ξ | -8.8% | 91.3% |
| #8986 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.250Ξ | 0.267Ξ | -6.4% | 93.6% |
| #8986 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.219Ξ | 0.267Ξ | -18.0% | 82.0% |
| #9455 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.240Ξ | 0.275Ξ | -12.8% | 87.2% |
| #3899 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.241Ξ | 0.292Ξ | -17.3% | 82.7% |
| #1803 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.245Ξ | 0.290Ξ | -15.4% | 84.6% |
| #507 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.253Ξ | 0.314Ξ | -19.4% | 80.6% |
| #3899 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.246Ξ | 0.292Ξ | -15.6% | 84.4% |
| #1873 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.254Ξ | 0.283Ξ | -10.1% | 89.9% |
| #9803 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.255Ξ | 0.273Ξ | -6.5% | 93.5% |
| #3712 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.260Ξ | 0.277Ξ | -6.2% | 93.8% |
| #9455 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.261Ξ | 0.275Ξ | -5.1% | 94.9% |
| #4178 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.263Ξ | 0.297Ξ | -11.4% | 88.7% |
| #4360 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.264Ξ | 0.299Ξ | -11.7% | 88.3% |
| #3205 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.273Ξ | 0.284Ξ | -3.8% | 96.2% |
| #7639 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.282Ξ | 0.279Ξ | +1.0% | 99.0% |
| #2346 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.300Ξ | 0.312Ξ | -3.9% | 96.1% |
| #3896 | Jun 11, 2026 | 0.396Ξ | 0.331Ξ | +19.5% | 80.5% |
| #8986 | Jun 11, 2026 | 0.265Ξ | 0.251Ξ | +5.8% | 94.3% |
| #4510 | Jun 11, 2026 | 0.300Ξ | 0.279Ξ | +7.6% | 92.5% |
| #9761 | Jun 11, 2026 | 0.388Ξ | 0.309Ξ | +25.7% | 74.3% |
| #7403 | Jun 11, 2026 | 0.298Ξ | 0.305Ξ | -2.4% | 97.6% |
| #6205 | Jun 11, 2026 | 2.500Ξ | 0.274Ξ | +813.5% | -713.5% |
| #9761 | Jun 11, 2026 | 0.278Ξ | 0.304Ξ | -8.7% | 91.3% |
| #4834 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.349Ξ | 0.291Ξ | +19.9% | 80.1% |
| #207 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.299Ξ | 0.265Ξ | +13.0% | 87.1% |
| #4740 | Jun 9, 2026 | 0.449Ξ | 0.306Ξ | +46.8% | 53.2% |
| #4834 | Jun 9, 2026 | 0.281Ξ | 0.284Ξ | -1.0% | 99.0% |
| #9777 | Jun 9, 2026 | 0.298Ξ | 0.272Ξ | +9.7% | 90.3% |
| #626 | Jun 8, 2026 | 0.297Ξ | 0.276Ξ | +7.8% | 92.2% |
| #5128 | Jun 8, 2026 | 0.320Ξ | 0.264Ξ | +21.2% | 78.9% |
| #7856 | Jun 8, 2026 | 0.279Ξ | 0.250Ξ | +11.5% | 88.5% |
| #3400 | Jun 8, 2026 | 0.278Ξ | 0.253Ξ | +9.7% | 90.3% |
Method details on the methodology page.