Accuracy
How accurate is the mfers model?
Every estimate is benchmarked against real sales the model never trained on (a seeded 80/20 hold-out).
Median accuracy
90.0%
Mean accuracy
87.6%
Within ±5%
25%
Within ±10%
50%
Within ±20%
84%
Bias
-7.7%
Weekly median accuracy
Hold-out accuracy by week
Error distribution
Signed % error on recent sales (0 = perfect)
Recent sales vs model
The 60 most recent sales, each valued as of its sale date
| Item | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #132 | Jun 17, 2026 | 0.199Ξ | 0.184Ξ | +8.1% | 91.9% |
| #132 | Jun 17, 2026 | 0.175Ξ | 0.184Ξ | -4.8% | 95.2% |
| #4775 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.325Ξ | 0.202Ξ | +61.0% | 39.0% |
| #8092 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.173Ξ | 0.174Ξ | -0.6% | 99.4% |
| #74 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.186Ξ | 0.188Ξ | -1.1% | 98.9% |
| #2912 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.279Ξ | 0.188Ξ | +48.5% | 51.5% |
| #5666 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.319Ξ | 0.189Ξ | +68.8% | 31.2% |
| #223 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.200Ξ | 0.178Ξ | +12.2% | 87.8% |
| #35 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.337Ξ | 0.199Ξ | +69.2% | 30.8% |
| #5995 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.300Ξ | 0.182Ξ | +65.1% | 34.9% |
| #9522 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.250Ξ | 0.193Ξ | +29.5% | 70.5% |
| #2533 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.171Ξ | 0.178Ξ | -4.0% | 96.0% |
| #8089 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.187Ξ | 0.183Ξ | +1.9% | 98.1% |
| #5810 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.179Ξ | 0.178Ξ | +0.3% | 99.7% |
| #722 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.169Ξ | 0.186Ξ | -9.1% | 90.9% |
| #6939 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.166Ξ | 0.170Ξ | -2.5% | 97.5% |
| #5810 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.166Ξ | 0.178Ξ | -6.9% | 93.1% |
| #699 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.175Ξ | 0.176Ξ | -0.6% | 99.4% |
| #767 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.169Ξ | 0.168Ξ | +0.8% | 99.3% |
| #6236 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.169Ξ | 0.181Ξ | -6.7% | 93.3% |
| #2533 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.171Ξ | 0.179Ξ | -4.2% | 95.8% |
| #7434 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.170Ξ | 0.181Ξ | -6.2% | 93.8% |
| #8720 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.169Ξ | 0.182Ξ | -7.2% | 92.9% |
| #8239 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.170Ξ | 0.177Ξ | -4.0% | 96.0% |
| #6236 | Jun 11, 2026 | 0.219Ξ | 0.181Ξ | +20.7% | 79.3% |
| #722 | Jun 11, 2026 | 0.219Ξ | 0.186Ξ | +17.6% | 82.4% |
| #3536 | Jun 11, 2026 | 0.179Ξ | 0.181Ξ | -0.7% | 99.3% |
| #6236 | Jun 11, 2026 | 0.199Ξ | 0.181Ξ | +9.7% | 90.3% |
| #722 | Jun 11, 2026 | 0.199Ξ | 0.186Ξ | +6.9% | 93.1% |
| #2294 | Jun 11, 2026 | 0.179Ξ | 0.169Ξ | +6.1% | 93.9% |
| #4285 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.179Ξ | 0.173Ξ | +3.7% | 96.3% |
| #7103 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.207Ξ | 0.183Ξ | +13.0% | 87.0% |
| #2071 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.169Ξ | 0.179Ξ | -5.6% | 94.4% |
| #426 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.179Ξ | 0.182Ξ | -1.6% | 98.4% |
| #2071 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.159Ξ | 0.179Ξ | -11.4% | 88.6% |
| #426 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.159Ξ | 0.182Ξ | -12.9% | 87.2% |
| #8678 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.165Ξ | 0.178Ξ | -7.3% | 92.7% |
| #8949 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.165Ξ | 0.174Ξ | -5.2% | 94.8% |
| #2193 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.229Ξ | 0.188Ξ | +21.8% | 78.2% |
| #4775 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.167Ξ | 0.203Ξ | -17.8% | 82.2% |
Method details on the methodology page.