Accuracy
How accurate is the Pudgy Penguins model?
Every estimate is benchmarked against real sales the model never trained on (a seeded 80/20 hold-out).
Median accuracy
94.6%
Mean accuracy
92.3%
Within ±5%
47%
Within ±10%
77%
Within ±20%
93%
Bias
-2.7%
Weekly median accuracy
Hold-out accuracy by week
Error distribution
Signed % error on recent sales (0 = perfect)
Recent sales vs model
The 60 most recent sales, each valued as of its sale date
| Item | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1534 | Jun 14, 2026 | 4.500Ξ | 4.293Ξ | +4.8% | 95.2% |
| #2746 | Jun 14, 2026 | 4.450Ξ | 4.259Ξ | +4.5% | 95.5% |
| #7776 | Jun 13, 2026 | 4.599Ξ | 4.396Ξ | +4.6% | 95.4% |
| #3109 | Jun 13, 2026 | 4.500Ξ | 4.330Ξ | +3.9% | 96.1% |
| #8527 | Jun 13, 2026 | 4.548Ξ | 4.287Ξ | +6.1% | 93.9% |
| #3503 | Jun 13, 2026 | 7.000Ξ | 5.287Ξ | +32.4% | 67.6% |
| #47 | Jun 13, 2026 | 4.540Ξ | 4.199Ξ | +8.1% | 91.9% |
| #8527 | Jun 13, 2026 | 4.400Ξ | 4.285Ξ | +2.7% | 97.3% |
| #5285 | Jun 12, 2026 | 4.499Ξ | 4.210Ξ | +6.9% | 93.1% |
| #5749 | Jun 12, 2026 | 4.640Ξ | 4.313Ξ | +7.6% | 92.4% |
| #8120 | Jun 12, 2026 | 4.450Ξ | 4.453Ξ | -0.1% | 99.9% |
| #6731 | Jun 12, 2026 | 4.330Ξ | 4.268Ξ | +1.5% | 98.6% |
| #753 | Jun 12, 2026 | 4.450Ξ | 4.275Ξ | +4.1% | 95.9% |
| #573 | Jun 12, 2026 | 4.450Ξ | 4.260Ξ | +4.5% | 95.6% |
| #7137 | Jun 12, 2026 | 4.949Ξ | 4.387Ξ | +12.8% | 87.2% |
| #3454 | Jun 12, 2026 | 4.410Ξ | 4.414Ξ | -0.1% | 99.9% |
| #5857 | Jun 12, 2026 | 4.360Ξ | 4.200Ξ | +3.8% | 96.2% |
| #1620 | Jun 11, 2026 | 4.469Ξ | 4.309Ξ | +3.7% | 96.3% |
| #269 | Jun 11, 2026 | 4.450Ξ | 4.233Ξ | +5.1% | 94.9% |
| #7905 | Jun 11, 2026 | 5.790Ξ | 5.217Ξ | +11.0% | 89.0% |
| #3836 | Jun 11, 2026 | 4.440Ξ | 4.255Ξ | +4.3% | 95.7% |
| #3125 | Jun 11, 2026 | 4.500Ξ | 4.453Ξ | +1.1% | 98.9% |
| #5306 | Jun 11, 2026 | 6.260Ξ | 4.761Ξ | +31.5% | 68.5% |
| #8120 | Jun 11, 2026 | 4.344Ξ | 4.457Ξ | -2.5% | 97.5% |
| #47 | Jun 11, 2026 | 4.340Ξ | 4.201Ξ | +3.3% | 96.7% |
| #495 | Jun 11, 2026 | 4.320Ξ | 4.183Ξ | +3.3% | 96.7% |
| #5535 | Jun 11, 2026 | 4.290Ξ | 4.204Ξ | +2.0% | 98.0% |
| #5423 | Jun 11, 2026 | 4.427Ξ | 4.322Ξ | +2.4% | 97.6% |
| #5564 | Jun 11, 2026 | 4.790Ξ | 4.557Ξ | +5.1% | 94.9% |
| #3593 | Jun 11, 2026 | 4.427Ξ | 4.370Ξ | +1.3% | 98.7% |
| #8331 | Jun 11, 2026 | 4.440Ξ | 4.236Ξ | +4.8% | 95.2% |
| #5564 | Jun 10, 2026 | 4.460Ξ | 4.558Ξ | -2.2% | 97.8% |
| #799 | Jun 10, 2026 | 4.427Ξ | 4.274Ξ | +3.6% | 96.4% |
| #5647 | Jun 10, 2026 | 4.387Ξ | 4.427Ξ | -0.9% | 99.1% |
| #1347 | Jun 10, 2026 | 4.580Ξ | 4.292Ξ | +6.7% | 93.3% |
| #495 | Jun 10, 2026 | 4.370Ξ | 4.185Ξ | +4.4% | 95.6% |
| #47 | Jun 10, 2026 | 4.370Ξ | 4.204Ξ | +4.0% | 96.0% |
| #3321 | Jun 10, 2026 | 4.370Ξ | 4.294Ξ | +1.8% | 98.2% |
| #4004 | Jun 10, 2026 | 4.290Ξ | 4.239Ξ | +1.2% | 98.8% |
| #6195 | Jun 10, 2026 | 6.500Ξ | 5.056Ξ | +28.6% | 71.4% |
Method details on the methodology page.