Accuracy
How accurate is the Quirkies model?
Every estimate is benchmarked against real sales the model never trained on (a seeded 80/20 hold-out).
Median accuracy
91.5%
Mean accuracy
89.8%
Within ±5%
32%
Within ±10%
57%
Within ±20%
88%
Bias
+3.3%
Weekly median accuracy
Hold-out accuracy by week
Error distribution
Signed % error on recent sales (0 = perfect)
Recent sales vs model
The 60 most recent sales, each valued as of its sale date
| Item | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #301 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.896Ξ | 0.986Ξ | -9.1% | 90.9% |
| #739 | Jun 13, 2026 | 1.018Ξ | 1.011Ξ | +0.7% | 99.3% |
| #4510 | Jun 13, 2026 | 1.015Ξ | 1.071Ξ | -5.2% | 94.8% |
| #2889 | Jun 13, 2026 | 1.010Ξ | 0.992Ξ | +1.8% | 98.2% |
| #3339 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.950Ξ | 1.018Ξ | -6.7% | 93.3% |
| #1828 | Jun 13, 2026 | 1.650Ξ | 1.487Ξ | +11.0% | 89.0% |
| #3907 | Jun 13, 2026 | 1.022Ξ | 1.018Ξ | +0.4% | 99.6% |
| #3723 | Jun 12, 2026 | 1.040Ξ | 1.081Ξ | -3.8% | 96.2% |
| #4254 | Jun 12, 2026 | 1.018Ξ | 0.960Ξ | +6.1% | 94.0% |
| #1452 | Jun 12, 2026 | 1.025Ξ | 0.994Ξ | +3.1% | 96.9% |
| #1151 | Jun 11, 2026 | 1.001Ξ | 0.974Ξ | +2.8% | 97.3% |
| #820 | Jun 11, 2026 | 1.690Ξ | 1.397Ξ | +21.0% | 79.0% |
| #2780 | Jun 11, 2026 | 1.020Ξ | 1.089Ξ | -6.3% | 93.7% |
| #1151 | Jun 11, 2026 | 0.900Ξ | 0.964Ξ | -6.7% | 93.3% |
| #3197 | Jun 10, 2026 | 1.200Ξ | 1.144Ξ | +4.9% | 95.1% |
| #193 | Jun 10, 2026 | 1.020Ξ | 1.063Ξ | -4.0% | 96.0% |
| #3482 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.990Ξ | 0.975Ξ | +1.6% | 98.4% |
| #1827 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.990Ξ | 0.984Ξ | +0.6% | 99.4% |
| #1523 | Jun 10, 2026 | 0.980Ξ | 1.029Ξ | -4.8% | 95.3% |
| #577 | Jun 9, 2026 | 0.977Ξ | 1.013Ξ | -3.6% | 96.4% |
| #510 | Jun 9, 2026 | 0.959Ξ | 1.011Ξ | -5.2% | 94.8% |
| #4254 | Jun 9, 2026 | 0.866Ξ | 0.936Ξ | -7.4% | 92.6% |
| #671 | Jun 9, 2026 | 0.960Ξ | 0.968Ξ | -0.9% | 99.2% |
| #3336 | Jun 9, 2026 | 1.020Ξ | 1.084Ξ | -5.9% | 94.1% |
| #577 | Jun 8, 2026 | 0.894Ξ | 0.998Ξ | -10.4% | 89.6% |
| #797 | Jun 8, 2026 | 1.028Ξ | 0.999Ξ | +2.9% | 97.1% |
| #797 | Jun 8, 2026 | 0.863Ξ | 0.997Ξ | -13.5% | 86.5% |
| #3123 | Jun 7, 2026 | 1.030Ξ | 1.047Ξ | -1.7% | 98.4% |
| #3412 | Jun 7, 2026 | 1.030Ξ | 0.992Ξ | +3.8% | 96.2% |
| #3439 | Jun 7, 2026 | 0.998Ξ | 0.981Ξ | +1.7% | 98.3% |
| #1182 | Jun 7, 2026 | 1.000Ξ | 1.020Ξ | -2.0% | 98.0% |
| #4886 | Jun 6, 2026 | 1.000Ξ | 0.979Ξ | +2.2% | 97.8% |
| #4536 | Jun 6, 2026 | 1.040Ξ | 1.102Ξ | -5.6% | 94.4% |
| #2548 | Jun 5, 2026 | 1.010Ξ | 1.010Ξ | +0.0% | 100.0% |
| #2085 | Jun 5, 2026 | 1.004Ξ | 1.011Ξ | -0.7% | 99.3% |
| #2085 | Jun 5, 2026 | 0.838Ξ | 1.011Ξ | -17.1% | 82.9% |
| #3134 | Jun 4, 2026 | 1.039Ξ | 1.039Ξ | -0.0% | 100.0% |
| #2071 | Jun 4, 2026 | 1.350Ξ | 1.178Ξ | +14.6% | 85.4% |
| #1139 | Jun 4, 2026 | 1.039Ξ | 1.007Ξ | +3.2% | 96.8% |
| #3899 | Jun 4, 2026 | 1.190Ξ | 1.135Ξ | +4.8% | 95.2% |
Method details on the methodology page.