Accuracy
How accurate is the Remilio Babies model?
Every estimate is benchmarked against real sales the model never trained on (a seeded 80/20 hold-out).
Median accuracy
91.6%
Mean accuracy
87.3%
Within ±5%
32%
Within ±10%
56%
Within ±20%
81%
Bias
+5.2%
Weekly median accuracy
Hold-out accuracy by week
Error distribution
Signed % error on recent sales (0 = perfect)
Recent sales vs model
The 60 most recent sales, each valued as of its sale date
| Item | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1594 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.208Ξ | 0.201Ξ | +3.5% | 96.5% |
| #9304 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.490Ξ | 0.312Ξ | +56.8% | 43.2% |
| #3140 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.215Ξ | 0.197Ξ | +9.3% | 90.7% |
| #1062 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.213Ξ | 0.196Ξ | +8.6% | 91.4% |
| #6898 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.230Ξ | 0.199Ξ | +15.5% | 84.5% |
| #6898 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.218Ξ | 0.199Ξ | +9.5% | 90.5% |
| #6878 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.230Ξ | 0.211Ξ | +9.2% | 90.8% |
| #8714 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.230Ξ | 0.215Ξ | +7.2% | 92.8% |
| #9849 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.230Ξ | 0.211Ξ | +8.8% | 91.2% |
| #1215 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.230Ξ | 0.201Ξ | +14.3% | 85.7% |
| #8714 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.203Ξ | 0.215Ξ | -5.4% | 94.6% |
| #2997 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.620Ξ | 0.455Ξ | +36.2% | 63.8% |
| #1215 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.201Ξ | 0.201Ξ | -0.1% | 99.9% |
| #5520 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.237Ξ | 0.200Ξ | +18.0% | 82.0% |
| #8714 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.237Ξ | 0.215Ξ | +10.5% | 89.5% |
| #8714 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.213Ξ | 0.215Ξ | -0.7% | 99.3% |
| #9179 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.260Ξ | 0.204Ξ | +27.5% | 72.5% |
| #9249 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.202Ξ | 0.207Ξ | -2.9% | 97.1% |
| #6465 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.230Ξ | 0.199Ξ | +15.4% | 84.7% |
| #9996 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.231Ξ | 0.188Ξ | +23.1% | 76.9% |
| #4074 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.230Ξ | 0.194Ξ | +18.5% | 81.5% |
| #3621 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.230Ξ | 0.190Ξ | +21.0% | 79.1% |
| #708 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.332Ξ | 0.246Ξ | +35.2% | 64.8% |
| #8714 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.248Ξ | 0.215Ξ | +15.8% | 84.2% |
| #9952 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.230Ξ | 0.211Ξ | +8.8% | 91.2% |
| #8182 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.230Ξ | 0.205Ξ | +12.2% | 87.8% |
| #6272 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.249Ξ | 0.217Ξ | +14.9% | 85.2% |
| #8714 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.227Ξ | 0.215Ξ | +5.8% | 94.2% |
| #6272 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.229Ξ | 0.217Ξ | +5.7% | 94.3% |
| #6188 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.260Ξ | 0.210Ξ | +23.9% | 76.1% |
| #3146 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.248Ξ | 0.206Ξ | +20.6% | 79.4% |
| #4338 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.253Ξ | 0.205Ξ | +23.7% | 76.3% |
| #9249 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.245Ξ | 0.207Ξ | +18.1% | 81.9% |
| #2060 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.230Ξ | 0.203Ξ | +13.2% | 86.8% |
| #6898 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.248Ξ | 0.199Ξ | +24.6% | 75.4% |
| #9249 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.220Ξ | 0.207Ξ | +6.0% | 94.0% |
| #8159 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.220Ξ | 0.193Ξ | +14.2% | 85.9% |
| #8255 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.220Ξ | 0.195Ξ | +12.9% | 87.1% |
| #2775 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.246Ξ | 0.217Ξ | +13.6% | 86.4% |
| #1901 | Jun 12, 2026 | 0.320Ξ | 0.240Ξ | +33.1% | 66.9% |
Method details on the methodology page.